Can Faith Kipyegon Run A Sub 4 Minute Mile?

Picture from Nike

Remember Nike's Breaking 2 project where Eliud Kipchoge went under 2 hours for the marathon? Nike is at it again, this time with Kenya's Faith Kipyegon, who will attempt to make history by becoming the first woman to go under 4 minutes for the mile.

Kipyegon already holds the mile and 1500 m world records and has worn 3 Olympic gold medals in the 1500 m. Her current world record for the mile is 4:07.61 min. Can she take more than 7 seconds off the world record? It is definitely an audacious attempt, but she wants to push boundaries and "dream outside the box".

The Breaking 4 project was announced by Nike in partnership with Kipyegon last week with Nike pledging to create a "holistic system of support that optimizes every aspect of her attempt".

This is good news as Nike had fallen behind their competitors during the Covid-19 years. Then Nike CEO John Donahoe who was appointed in January 2020 for his digital chops so he could help Nike cut out retailers (like Foot Locker and Macy's) by improving their e-commerce operations. As Nike cut off their wholesale partners, it paved the way for other upstart competitors like On Running and Hoka to take over crucial shelf space and grab market share.

Personally, I felt that Donahoe (former eBay and ServiceNow CEO), lacked the deep understanding required for the sneaker culture and industry that Nike required. Donahoe went too much into releasing different editions of Nike's classic sneaker lines (Dunks, Air Force 1's and Air Jordans). He  neglected the innovation section which led to Nike developing the Alphafly's that help Kipchoge break 2 hours  for the marathon.

Am glad he was replaced by Elliot Hill as CEO in October, 2024. Hill had retired from Nike in 2020, prior to Donahue being appointed. Hill was previously with Nike for more than 32 years. He will be better at getting back to the fundamentals that made Nike the market leader in sneakers and athletic apparel previously.

Kipyegon currently trains in Kenya with Kipchoge (who else) while Nike has a team at its headquarters in Oregon crafting her spikes and apparel while analyzing her scans to help her. 

She will only make 1 attempt on June 26, 2025 at the Stade Charlety in Paris, where she previously set world records for the 5,000 metres in 2023 and the 1,500 metres in 2024.

Can she break the world record? Da Silva and colleagues (2025) recently published an article suggesting that with "greatly improved" yet "reasonable" aerodynamic drafting off pacesetters, Kipygeon can break the barrier. 

Let's see if she can do it.

Reference

Da Silva ES, Hoogkamer W, Kipp S et al (2025). Could A Female Athlete Run A 4-Minute Mile With Improved Aerodynamic Drafting? Royal Soc Open Sci. DOI: 10.1098/rsos.241564